Reality Check India

Italy summons Indian Envoy over Orissa

Posted in Uncategorized by realitycheck on August 28, 2008

Orissa in on the boil again. This time the trigger was the murder of Swami Laxmananda Saraswati and several of his followers.

What really caught my eye was this news story !

Rome: Italy’s Foreign Ministry will summon India’s ambassador to demand “incisive action” to prevent further attacks against Christians that have left 11 people dead in Orissa, the Italian government said on Thursday.

A statement issued after a cabinet meeting also said Italy would ask France, the current EU president, to take up the issue of attacks against Christians at a future meeting of foreign ministers.

Source : IBN LIVE

Italy has no business interfering in this incident. None of the killed or injured were Italian or EU nationals.

The fight is tribal in nature and is related to benefits attached to ST status. If you can concentrate for about 15 minutes  – you will find that this issue like most others are linked to the ad hoc benefits attached to group membership. This one will blow over but will reappear twice as strong in some other form. The only way to stem the rot is to inject rational-basis into the group classification system.

All Catholic Schools shut on Friday

NEW DELHI (ICNS): More than 40,000 Christian educational institutions across India will remain closed on Friday as a stark reminder of the continuing violence against Christians in Orissa that has claimed 14 lives in the past four days.
Following a call from Catholic Bishops’ Conference of India on Tuesday,  Catholics have decided to close down all educational institutions, numbering some 20,300 across India, as a mark of protest.

Christians of other denominations led by Church of South India, Church of North India and other Churches will close all their educational institutions in an unprecedented move, a Catholic priest said. These Christian groups togther run another 20,000 institutions,  he said.

Source

The situation in the tribal areas of Orissa certainly do not seem to allow evangelism to take place in a peaceful manner. Why not take it easy on Orissa for a few years ?

Mopping up the remaining free agents – the 6th pay commission

Posted in Uncategorized by realitycheck on August 16, 2008

Unless you are living in a cave – you cant help notice the full page ads from every Union Ministry tom-tomming its achievements. Yes, we are in “poll mode” – where economic sense is thrown into garbage. What use is “economic sense” if it cannot help retain power ?

Mr Manmohan Singh yesterday announced that his government (UPA led by the Congress party) has approved a “windfall pay revision” for central government employees. In fact, the UPA (led by the Congress party) has gone over and beyond the recommendations.

The windfall pay revision, announced on the eve of the country’s 62nd Independence Day, would be implemented from September 1, this year and the government employees would get 32 months’ arrears, that too with significant improvements over the Sixth Pay Commission recommendations.

Source: IE

Sure enough, almost all states are going to “follow” the 6th pay commission report and also go over and beyond it. (Pondy, TN, Haryana, do not fret – the list will be complete)

Even the 6th pay panel led by Jus (Retd) BN Srikrishna is stumped.

With an eye on the next general election, the UPA government gifted its 55 lakh employees an Independence Day pay bonanza of Rs22,131 crore – a move that left even the authors of the Sixth Pay Commission stumped.

With the Union budget already reeling under the combined burdens of oil subsidies, farm loan waivers and high interest costs, the cabinet decided to add to its fiscal woes by approving an average increase of 21% in the salaries of civil and defence staff, a figure that’s even higher than what the Pay Commission headed by Justice (Retd) BN Srikrishna recommended. “We had long discussions on facts and figures with the finance department and economists to see how much elbow room the government had and suggested the best possible increase. Now the government has decided to exceed that. All the best to them,” Justice Srikrishna remarked to DNA.

Source : DNA

If you are lucky enough to be a government employee : please use this calculator to compute your official salary gains http://6pc.in/

So, where does this fit in with our behaviour theory of Indian politics ?

Prima facie, it would appear that political gains from such an exercise are minimal. Will a heftier pay packet make a Yadav vote for the Congress when there is an alternative exclusively for his group in the form of Laloo and Mulayam ? Will a Dalit Jatav not vote for Mayawati because of a pay hike ? Will Tamil upper castes (maybe officially backward) vote for the Congress when the DMK and indeed the entire Dravidian movement is available for them. The answer is a big no ! These community leaders expect to be rewarded at the hustings for shielding their constituent beneficiaries from analysis.

The only catch is this : You see Desi people forget to say thanks ! Voters will mobilize for new benefits or to protect existing benefits under threat. They need prodding and constant reminders (and vote marshals) when they begin to take their benefits for granted. Enter the vote marshals. Vote marshals are the guys who knock on your doors – arrange free autorickshaws to the polling booths. They are the most understudied aspect of our political system. They do not mobilize for thanksgiving.

So whats the deal, if it wont dent group behaviour  ?

Despite Mandal, it is true that the Central government and many state governments especially in the north have significant free agents (voters without a narrower choice for their own group). Government employees of all kinds also have a tremendously greater fan-out in terms of organization (think about the dozens of Railways employees unions and associations, Posts pensioners associations). They also have extensive forward links with the rest of the economy – procurements / commissions from private vendors, a large and hopeful temp worker population (eg Neyveli Lignite, Railways, temp teachers,etc). Many media personalities today have a privileged past of high government access.

This is an exercise at mopping them up. Will it work ? Absolutely !!

To summarize in a few words :

The Congress party is an expert in creating RIVAL economic resources and extending benefits in exchange for association or affiliation. To access a resource, you need to be someone or know someone. It is the new feudal order after the British left on their own. This is the real class divide. This is why the really backward still break stones – they do not “know” anyone and they are certainly not “someone”. See Barbarindians post on a topic.

The BJP at least during the limited time we got to know it, attempted to create NON-RIVAL resources like the highways. Perhaps more significantly, it appeared to cap the policy of creating rival resources by “showing a bottom”. Remember the same DMK / PMK was clamouring for a no-data-based extension of rival benefits for their communities. The BJP was able to counter that, while it would have been dead easy to give in like the Congress. We also are aware that if the ecosystem is designed to encourage the creation of rival resources, the BJP and the Left also have to play that game. Otherwise, they will will face the same fate as any mutant.

This is really the choice in front of us. Rival or non-Rival economic goods.

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Thoughts on some posts in the Indian blogosphere

Barbarindians is on roll lately. I challenge you to find a comparable blog on Indian politics and society (post a link in the comments section). Seriously, I would like more reading options.

Some recent posts from his blog:

It is hard to find an example of a country where after the imperialistic/oppressive forces left, the whole bureaucracy, academia and armed forces establishment (also business) was kept intact. We are not saying this is bad per se. This is also just, if you really want to go ballistic on a part of your population just because they “cooperated” with the colonials, you ought to give them prior notice. But this warning was not given and it was well accepted that India would not erupt into a xenophobic violence against every supposed “collaborator”. But this is not a silly notion at all.

http://barbarindians.blogspot.com/2008/08/indias-real-class-divide-draft.html

On Crony Capitalism –

On the face of it, it would appear that crony-capitalism sometimes leads to great success. The Japanese success story, the relative success of South Korea, Taiwan or even Indonesia/Malaysia lends credence to this observation. Even the United States had their robber baron era. In the South-East Asian nations, crony capitalism was used as an exit route to realize economic gains while the Government maintained a populist front.

http://barbarindians.blogspot.com/2008/08/can-crony-capitalism-help-india.html

I enjoyed this post, because there has been very little debate on this subject. Can we do a Japan (Mitsubishi) or Korea (Daewoo, Hyundai) ? Will this model work here ? Who cares if illegal billionaires are created if millions can come out of poverty ?

Let us step down a couple of levels from Japan, Korea, and the robber-barons of the USA.

Now, let us try to analyze bottom up (always works in India)

Consider the “Roving Bandit / Stationary Bandit” theory as a starting point. (Google for it)

I just googled the names of some books and these links came up pointing to Google Books. I am not sure they contain all pages.

Why Botswana prospered ? – by Clark Leigh

Political economy of dictatorship – by Ronald Wintrobe (see Page 132)

The concept of stationary bandit nicely explains why many among the warring factions in Zaire in 1996 actually seemed to prefer the return of the kleptocrat Mobutu Sese Seko to life in his absence….

These books written by westerners seriously fall short of analyzing the Indian situation. Why should they, Indians should take up the task ?

So the questions :

Reality Check asserts that the Indian system is a legislature dominated by group interests propped up by a submissive judiciary. Is this true ?

Is our system creating stationary or roving bandits ? What is the trend since independence ? Are the stationary bandits of the Congress era converting themselves into roving bandits today ?

Are our state level politicians acquiring inter-state family interests ?

Are our politicians developing significant family interests in other countries ? (Are they settling their families abroad)

Can they leave for extended periods on very short notice ?

In the Indian scenario, we to break it down. We may have hundreds of stationary bandits – with interlinked interests – each with a limited geographical influence. A simple test whether this works will depend on how these revenue maximizing bandits are invested in their OWN area.

A crony capitalist with political connections from Tamilnadu acquiring coffee estates in Coorg or Rubber plantations in Wayanad or orchards in Hyderabad would be an example of a roving bandit.

A crony capitalist from Tamilnadu setting up a factory in his own district in an example of a stationary bandit. Vastly preferable.

Of course, the truth will lie in between. A crony roving bandit would siphon off significant insurance outside his zone and also maximize revenue from his own sphere.

So do I think crony capitalism will work here ?

I think crony capitalism will not work in India because of the limited area of influence of each player. Within a short period of time these actors will invest significantly outside their own areas of influence. They will also create insurance investments in estates, livable communities, and resources like granite and sand mining. This will in turn dampen their enthusiasm to maximize revenue from their own area.

Even God cannot save this country : Supreme Court

Posted in Uncategorized by realitycheck on August 5, 2008

Even God will not be able to save this country,” a fuming Supreme Court today said while slamming the Government for its refusal to amend the law for launching criminal prosecution against those who illegally occupy official houses. “We are fed up with this Government,” the apex court said, adding “They don’t have the guts to differ with the opinion of the clerks.

Source : Yahoo news

I agree 100%, but I wish for more.

The law should also be amended to enable prosecution of those who consume tea and samosas in official canteens after they retire.

If only we could fix these two – God can save this country !