Reality Check India

CNN-IBN and Times Now : Easy win for UPA

Posted in Uncategorized by realitycheck on May 13, 2009

CNN-IBN : Predicts 185-205 seats for the UPA and 165-185 seats for the NDA

I was watching Rajdeep with curiosity as he sought to project this as a PHOTO FINISH. Far from being a photo finish, this implies an easy win. Remember that the left and the SP/RJD/LJP will come back to the UPA automatically. The number then will be 200 + 40 + 35 = UPA is back.

I was completely surprised none of the panelists called him on that.

Next, I switched to Times Now

Times Now : Predicts 198 for the Congress

This was a classic.  With 198, Times Now was essentially predicting the NDAs defeat. Mr Chandan Mitra squirmed and Mr Scindia gleefully called the anchor Arnabh Goshwami on it.

 

Thoughs on these numbers

See here for a summary of exit polls

1. All predictions discount the LJP/SP/RJD/Left. If they are taken into account and Trinamul deducted, then all Indian media channels are infact predicting an easy UPA win. There is no need for the Congress to rope in Nitish Kumar, play tricks with Jayalalitha, or dance with Patnaik.

2. No channel I watched gave state wise breakups. This is shocking and calls into question the quality of these numbers.

3. The polls assume a Congress / NCP sweep in Maharashtra.  If this happens, the NDA can sit in the opposition.

4. The polls do not include the last phase, but guesses were made instead. For TN, the guess was the AIADMK will sweep. This could improve the UPAs chances further whichever way you look at it. Remember the Congress holds the cards in Chennai.

5. Congress is predicted to do very well in the urban areas this time. Most panelists were weakly offering ‘good governance’ as an explanation. Reality Check thinks the reason is very simple, the educated urban middle class responds better to exclusive benefits.

If , as the media is predicting,

  • the Congress sweeps Maharashtra
  • cuts losses in AP
  • does well in Punjab , Haryana, and Rajasthan

the UPA is coming back.

If the medias exit polls are wrong (highly likely)

  • the Congress does not sweep Maharashtra

the NDA is coming back.

The media has to call right on THREE things for the UPA to come back , but wrong on only ONE thing for the NDA to come back.

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17 Responses

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  1. Barbarindian said, on May 13, 2009 at 11:17 pm

    All the projections are qualitative and takes as base the 2004 demographics. I believe the results will be so shocking that Hindus will run for cover and keep running because these change are irreversible. For instance, in AP, the percentage of a certain minority segment is 19% and not 9%.

    UPA has done very significant social engineering wherever it is strong. They will have a setback in Maha but make it up elsewhere.

    Your point about CNN-IBN’s contradictory stance is because of their disbelief at the numbers vs. sentiments. They are seeing that the numbers indicate a shocking skew towards UPA but unable to quite believe it.

  2. rc said, on May 14, 2009 at 2:23 am

    >>They will have a setback in Maha but make it up elsewhere.

    The CNNIBN panel (based on CSDS survey) predicted a complete sweep for Congress/NCP in Maharashtra.

    The editor of a Marathi daily (I cannot recall the name of the gentleman) disagreed vehemently, but Rajdeep stood by his claim. He said Mah is the new “game changer”.

    As per exit polls, If Maha indeed goes 40+ for the Cong/NCP combine and AP indeed goes 30+ for the Congress party alone. It is game over for the NDA.

  3. rc said, on May 14, 2009 at 3:45 am

    Here is the Maharashtra story :

    Q: Let us talk about the surprises now and because we’re talking state-wise, let us talk about the surprises that Maharashtra has thrown up because there you’re actually seeing the NCP-Congress alliance fairing better?

    From :http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/politics/polls-09-upa-has-slight-advantage-says-yogendra-yadav/397512/0

    Q: Let us talk about the surprises now and because we’re talking state-wise, let us talk about the surprises that Maharashtra has thrown up because there you’re actually seeing the NCP-Congress alliance fairing better?

    A: That’s right. Political common sense suggested that it will be evenly spilt like last time but the data that we’ve gathered and we have tried to check it very closely, says that UPA, which is to say Congress and NCP has a clear advantage, a decisive edge, it is not just an edge of 2-3 percentage points, it is a very clear edge.

    Q: Were you expecting this?

    A: I have been saying an edge to NCP-Congress but when I looked at the figures I was surprised because the edge is much bigger than I would have thought. It seems that both in Vidarbha where the NDA had swept last time, there the NCP has recovered and the BJP-Shiv Sena has not been able to match them in Mumbai. MNS has cost the BJP-Shiv Sena something.

  4. Prasanna said, on May 14, 2009 at 4:10 am

    Reality Check

    Great analysis.It appeara to be game ,set and match con party unless BJP does some imaginative alliance formation

    I am not sure if we can contemptously dismiss the exit polls the way few hardcore BJP having been doing.Though UndieTV/IBN types are blatantly biased and indulge in virulent villifcation of BJP,i doubt if they want to suffer irreparable loss to their already badly battered credibility by deliberate exagerrating the electoral fortunes of their favourite CON party.They might have gone completely wrong in the translation of vote percent in to seats but i do think that except on Maharashtra and TN,there appears to considerable convergence in the forecated outcomes

    As diehard Hindu fascist,i hope the actual results are diametrically opposite to predictions atleast in Andhra.But asssuming that UndieTV /IBN types have stuck to the professional Dharma and more or less right,it looks like we might have to suffer another 5 yrs of communal socialism and elitist tyranny.This is unless BJP has the necessary wherewithal to go for the kill

    Only way UPA ‘s ascension to the power can be prevented now is to request Sharad Pawar(much despised figure but realities of realpolitik is different) to form a front consisting NCP/ADMK/TDP/TRS/BJD/SP or BSP(SP having realised that Islamist have migrated to tehir natural habitat of Con party might be better bet than the vainglorious BSP) which will join forces with NDA and easily form the gurvment
    Ofcourse Pawar will have to head the government and key portfolios can be handled by BJP government.SS/BJP candidate can become CM in Maha.This arrangement will be stable as there is no geographic bases of the parties(except Mah)

    i dont see anyother way NDA can have a realistic chance at power.Takinga holier than thou attitude and sitting in the opposition in my book is politicl harakiri.Political power is a prerequisite for geographical expansion of BJP .Its shocking that the large section of parasitic Indian middle class feed on the dubious propaganda of media has fallen left,right and centre to the charms of Con.Stint in government is necessary to recover lost ground

    I hope the PM ambitions of Advani has to take backseat.I have immense respect for him as the man who revived the India rightwing through his astute leadership and inspiring quality but sometime personal ambition need to take backseat for larger nationalistic causes.He can probably play an guiding role in the new arrangement

    Between if MNS has hurt BJP -SS badly in Mumbai-Thane-Kalyan region ,its curtain for SS -BJP.Being in Mumbai it appeared to me than MNS had attracted section of Marathis.They fielded some interesting candidates too

  5. Prasanna said, on May 14, 2009 at 4:16 am

    Reality Check

    Not in TN for a while now.Do you think the unusually high turnout essentially means that DMK has managed to replicate the “Thirumanagalan” model on a larger scale

    1.Do you think that financial fortunes of political parties have reached to such levels that they can buy out 40 %electorates in 39 seats

    Even Vaiko looks vulnerable in Virudunagar and he complains of large scale rigging with money being distribution to 80% electorate there.Give his high personal integrity quoitent i dont have any reason to disbelieve

    I am inclined to go by exit polls which suggest a considerable edge for DMK front.Your take?

  6. rc said, on May 14, 2009 at 5:46 am

    My best guess :

    The committed voter arithmetic is overwhelmingly in AIADMKs favour. This will translate into seats in a large majority of constituencies.

    Tirumangalam has not been replicated.

    Very very difficult for the DMK to put up a good show. It will however win in its core seats.

    Congress will be lucky to win one. Rahuls comments really confused the DMK workers on the ground. Workers also upset with DMK for not percolating ‘benefits’ of government.

    In Chennai (North / South) DMK likely to hold on due to a large chunk of anti DMK / Congress votes to BJP.

  7. rc said, on May 14, 2009 at 5:48 am

    Checked some news channels during breakfast.

    Something is seriously wrong. They are giving 20-25 seats to SS/BJP in Maharashtra. There is no way the UPA will reach 185-205 without a sweep of Maharashtra.

    CNN IBN must provide a state wise breakup.

  8. reason said, on May 14, 2009 at 7:32 am

    ac.nielson exit poll on star/newsx gave statewise projections. they gave incredible 25 to UPA in TN. and their numbers were out by 5!

    Maha, most projections and exit polls except cnn-ibn projections are nda slightly ahead.

    cnn-ibn is not exit poll. it is apparently ‘projections’ based on survey a day after voting.

    watch TN,AP,MAHA and UP on 16th. the story appears to be that in TN DMDK would have cut anti-dmk vote, and in AP, praja-rajyam would have cut anti-cong vote. it can be made to go that way too. the loss to bjp would be just two potential regional allies if they had been ahead, but the gain to UPA is decisive.

    did you see the reaction of the LEFT to the projections in AP and TN in any tv/news media? i will be very interested in that. they are the partners now.

  9. rc said, on May 14, 2009 at 8:05 am

    reason,

    I dont think the DMDK is going to impact anything! Captians brother in law went to Delhi earlier, he should have struct a deal before returning. The cadres have nothing to work for. The are however going to be a factor in Kanyakumari – helping the BJP there.

    25 seats for UPA in TN is not happening. The Congress is contesting in 16 seats and is in trouble in all of them. So, to get 25 – the DMK would have to win all 21 + VCK 1 + Cong 3. Unlikely.

    Dont know about AP, but the pollsters were completely off the mark last time. This time too they are predicting gains for TDP in assembly but losses in LS. Very unlikely.

    I am still shocked by Yadavs predictions about Mah. The true hope for the UPA lies there. The UPA would really hope Yadav is right in predicting the complete rout of SS/BJP.

    I think :

    If Cong/NCP Holds Maha = NDA is back.
    If Cong/NCP Sweeps Maha = UPA is back.

  10. reason said, on May 14, 2009 at 8:28 am

    >> I dont think the DMDK is going to impact anything!

    but we will know what is in the EVMs only on 16th.

  11. rc said, on May 14, 2009 at 9:28 am

    Fair enough. I will shut up now.

  12. reason said, on May 14, 2009 at 9:56 am

    🙂

  13. reason said, on May 14, 2009 at 9:57 am

    again, i am interested to see how the left defend their allies in TN/AP in the face of these projections. so far i dont see anything at all, but i may not be watching much tv. tell me if you find anything.. like left saying ‘no way these numbers are right for TN’..

    once again, 🙂

  14. rc said, on May 14, 2009 at 11:14 am

    interesting times ahead 🙂

  15. reason said, on May 15, 2009 at 5:00 am

    i will make a prediction and then shut-up. NDA (including TRS and sangma) will hit 240.

    240 has a relevance.

  16. reason said, on May 15, 2009 at 6:45 am

    by the way, in TN, remember the approach of political parties to the HC incident, who took whose side among the warring parties etc. May be relevant tomorrow.

    I am still waiting for a left leader to say ‘we are sure our allies in AP and TN are doing well’. pointers welcome if i missed.

    well now i will truly shut up – until tomorrow or potentially longer.


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