Analysis of Tamilnadu MBBS admissions 2015-16
Continuing our data series on Tamilnadu medical admissions which you wont find in any main stream media. This time we will look at the MBBS admissions for 2015-16 and see how it compares with our old analysis of 2013-14.
Results based on provisional MBBS Merit List available at http://www.tnhealth.org/ (click on the scrolling link). I have also posted the raw PDF Provisional Rank List here (mbbs2015-16) because the raw data usually may be removed in a few days after counseling.
In 2015-16, Tamilnadu has 2655 medical seats this year including the ones surrendered by private colleges. Out of this 15% ie 398 seats are filled in via AIPMT (which was cancelled after a paper leak).
Key Findings
- It appears that over 95.4% of the population of TN is covered in reserved categories. This is supported by the fact that only 4.7% of those who applied for MBBS are from General Category (so called Forward Castes). Supported by fact that typically becoming doctors is something that ‘forward castes’ ought to be interested in.
- The castes classified as OBC are showing absolutely no evidence of disability. 13 of 17 tied at 100% are BC.
- There is an urgent necessity to revise the OBC Caste List due to the fact that 72.1% of the open category seats are taken by candidates belonging to castes currently classified as OBC in Tamilnadu.
- Only 53 of 2257 doctors will be from the general category in 2020.
- Only 53 of 2257 who apply for 100-odd open category PG seats in 2020 will be from general category. Multi level quotas are an area of interest for me currently as I consider them unconstitutional (to the extent we even have a constitution).
Total number of candidates for 2257 seats
| 2013-14 | 2013-14 | 2015-16 | 2015-16 | |
| TOTAL | 28785 | 100% | 31525 | 100% |
| BC | 12131 | 42.1% | 12944 | 41% |
| MBC | 6464 | 22.4% | 6754 | 21.4% |
| BC-Muslim | 1518 | 5.2% | 1690 | 5.4% |
| SC | 6007 | 20.9% | 7257 | 23.0% |
| SC-Arunthathiyar | 966 | 3.4% | 1079 | 3.4% |
| ST | 211 | 0.7% | 308 | 0.9% |
| Open Category (FC) | 1488 | 5.1% | 1493 | 4.7% |
Purely on Merit (If there were no quotas of any kind)
| 2013-14 | 2013-14 | 2015-16 | 2015-16 | |
| TOTAL | 2900 | 100% | 2257 | 100% |
| BC | 1833 | 63.2% | 1653 | 73.3% |
| MBC | 603 | 20.8% | 343 | 15.2% |
| BC-Muslim | 97 | 3.3% | 57 | 2.5% |
| SC | 126 | 4.3% | 52 | 2.3% |
| SC-Arunthathiyar | 4 | 0.1% | 6 | 0.1% |
| Open Category (FC) | 230 | 7.9% | 146 | 6.5% |
Number of guaranteed (reserved) seats by
community
| 2013-14 | 2013-14 | 2015-16 | 2015-16 | |
| TOTAL | 2900 | 100% | 2257 | 100% |
| BC Guaranteed (Reserved) | 768 | 26.5% | 598 | 26.5% |
| MBC Guaranteed | 580 | 20% | 451 | 20% |
| BC-Muslim Guaranteed | 102 | 3.5% | 79 | 3.5% |
| SC Guaranteed | 522 | 15% | 338 | 15% |
| SC-Arunthathiyar | 87 | 3% | 67 | 3% |
| Open Category (FC) Guaranteed | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Everyone Competes in | 899 | 31% | 699 | 31% |
How the 699 seats in open category were taken
| 2013-14 | 2013-14 | 2014-15 | 2014-15 | |
| TOTAL | 899 | 100% | 699 | 100% |
| BC | 578 | 64.2% | 503 | 72.1% |
| MBC | 190 | 21.1% | 98 | 14.0% |
| BC-Muslim | 30 | 3.3% | 23 | 3.2% |
| SC | 31 | 3.3% | 20 | 2.8% |
| SC-Arunthathiyar | 3 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.3% |
| Open Category
(Unreserved community) |
68 | 7.5% | 53 | 7.6% |
Final communal distribution = Open + Guaranteed
| Category | Seats obtained in open category | Seats guaranteed for community | Total seats obtained | % | % in
2013-14 |
Change |
| TOTAL | 699 | 1558 | 2257 | 100% | 100% | 0 |
| BC | 503 | 598 | 1102 | 48.8% | 46.4% | + 2.2% |
| MBC | 98 | 451 | 549 | 24.3% | 26.6% | – 2.3% |
| BC-Muslim | 23 | 79 | 102 | 4.5% | 4.6% | – 0.1% |
| SC | 20 | 338 | 358 | 15.9% | 19.1% | – 3.2% |
| SC-Arunthathiyar | 1 | 67 | 68 | 3.0% | 3.1% | – 0.1% |
| Open Category (Unreserved community) | 53 | 0 | 53 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0 % |
Communal loss = Seats if no quota vs with quota
| Category | Seats obtained when no quota | Seats obtained after quota | Loss/Gain due to quota | Gain/Loss % due to quota
2015-16 |
Gain/Loss % due to quota
2013-14 |
| TOTAL | 2257 | 2257 | 2257 | 100% | 100% |
| BC | 1653 | 1102 | -487 | -29.4% | -26.5% |
| MBC | 343 | 549 | +167 | +48.7% | +27.6% |
| BC-Muslim | 57 | 102 | +35 | +61.4% | +36.1% |
| SC | 52 | 358 | +427 | +821.1% | +338.8% |
| SC-Arunthathiyar | 6 | 68 | +86 | +1433.3% | +2150% |
| Open Category (Unreserved community) | 146 | 53 | -94 | -64.4% | -70.4% |
Marks distribution in first 899 seats (Exam hardness factor)
Tie break by Date of Birth / followed by Bio Marks/ followed by Random number
| Mark % ( Marks out of 200/2) | Number of Ties at
2013-14 |
Number of Ties at
2014-15 |
Number of ties at
2015-16 |
| 100% | 7 | 132 | 17 |
| 99.875% | 14 | 103 | 37 |
| 99.75% | 33 | 223 | 57 |
| 99.625% | 76 | 239 | 67 |
| 99.5% | 107 | 246 | 100 |
| 99.375% | 148 | 272 | 207 |
| 99.25% | 172 | 291 | 118 |
| 99.125% | 213 | 307 | 147 |
| 99% | 215 | 314 | 199 |
| 98.875% | 209 | 334 | 239 |
Analysis of this system and its implications for political
landscape of this country in next post.
Reality Check India 
Data story of the year with far-reaching implications for medical and pharmaceutical education.
Thanks for reading,
In Tamilnadu B.Pharm does not come under this list.
This list is used only for MBBS and BDS (Dental)
Of critical interest are 2 tables:
A what-if analysis of a ‘no-reservations’ system
+ the percentages of applicants
25% of the applicants were SC – both common SC as well as SC-Arunthathiyar – this is slightly higher than their share of the population – 19%.
– Without quotas,common-SC would have made it to only 2.3% of the seats.
– Without quotas, only 0.1% of the seats would have gone to Arunthathiyar
– With quotas, 3% did.
ST – their share of the TN population is 1% & 0.9% of applicants were ST category.
– Without quotas, 0 seats would have gone to ST.
– With quotas, 1.2% of seats went to ST.
General category -share of population is 5%& % 5% of applicants were from this category
– Without quotas, 7.5% of the seats would have gone to this category.
– With quotas, 2.3% went to OC.
BC/OBC/MBC constitute 67% of the population & 62% of applicants were from this category.
– Without quotas, 88% of the seats would have gone to these categories.
– With quotas, 73% went to this category
Muslims constitute 5% of the population and 5% of candidates
– Without quotas, 2.5% of the seats would have gone to this category.
– With quotas, 5% of the seats were taken by Muslims
Thus, if we look at how the numbers play out, 20% of seats would have to be reserved for SC/ST and for Arunthathiyars.
The BC category is, IMHO, completely not justified at all, considering that they would do quite well in open competition.
Good points, one way to detect extreme borderline like TN is whether a group loses due to quota vs no quota. From that angle the BC group would do well without quotas. However the issue is a bit more complicated that that.
Quotas in India are based on group membership.
The question is not *IF* OBC as a group are doing well but whether the components of the group are getting pro-rata roughly in the reserved category. I’ve been pushing for disaggregated data for years now. This is the key. The current system is very tense and volatile because there are groups waiting patiently for decades for their turn that is not coming.
Makes sense. However, with the large list of BC communities & the inability of caste-wise population data makes it almost impossible to get a meaningful sense of who is cornering above their pop %age
http://www.bcmbcmw.tn.gov.in/bclist.htm
Yeah, this line of analysis is interesting.
Where is the population shares data from?
None of the ST candidates made the cut, despite reservation?
the dynamics of MBBS entrance exam is very very different from an exam that some mathematics .. but, one interesting thing is, OBCs from TN are the strongest all over india .. their performance in all india competitive exams are much better than those of OBCs from other states ..
Not true, TN-OBC have a dreadfully bad record in IIT, NIT ; per NIT data ,TN-OBC score at level of SC from other states ;
When the State institutions are seen much yielding at less risk, why should they go for central or other State institutions. Whey my tree is yielding good, I have nothing to watch what is there in others trees.
if you the admission of tamilnadu students in iit and nit´s are very poor. if you taken NIT trichy , the number of students selected through all india quota is less than 10. in IIt´s only all india quota . The tamilnadu student performance in IIM ,IIT and NIT are very very poor. For example the all india rank of andra student and his own state rank are very near. But you cab see huge difference of tamilnadu´s students state rank and all india ranks ( Based on previous AIEEE ,NIT´S ADMISSION )
Its funny that IIT is taken the benchmark for academic excellence and educational status of a state.GER is a far far important criteria and performance of graduates /number of graduates is a more important crietria.
Lets consider the number of graduates from TN joining all india services,private sector,working and studying across the world in various disciplines to debunk this illogical analysis of making IIT admission as indicator of educational status of a state.Andhra is far behind TN in securing jobs,post graduate studies,gender equality,GER is a hard fact.
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/150907/nation-current-affairs/article/girls-outnumber-boys-tamil-nadu-colleges
According to HRD ministry data, of the 6,70,850 students (all streams of higher education, UG, PG, doctoral and post-doctoral) in Kerala, 3,95,801 are girls and among the 24 lakh students in Tamil Nadu, women constitute 51 per cent (12,24,715).
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/education/news/Tamil-Nadu-ranks-third-in-enrolment-in-higher-education/articleshow/45000543.cms
Tamil Nadu has been ranked third in the country in the gross enrolment ratio as per the provisional survey on higher education (2012-13) of the Union human resource development ministry. Only Union territories of Chandigarh (51.3) and Puducherry (42.1) are ranked above the state, which has a GER score of 41.
http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil_nadu/UPSC-Results-Out-Tamil-Nadu-Candidates-Shine/2015/07/04/article2902501.ece
As many as 118 candidates from Tamil Nadu are expected to have made the cut among the 1236 successfull candidates in the Civil Services Examination of the Union Public Service Commission.
https://samaj.revues.org/633
Among the overrepresented states, Tamil Nadu is more urbanised than the average. Statistically candidates with an urban background appear more and have a higher success ratio in the civil service examination. That is why Delhi and Haryana, as well as Chandigarh
>> IIT is taken the benchmark for academic excellence and educational status of a state.GER is a far far important criteria and performance of graduates /number of graduates is a more important crietria.
You just said it yourself.
As a benchmark for excellence or achievement IIT is the current standard in India.
As a benchmark for sheer reach and aspiration (without regard for quality or ability of students) GER is a good metric.
Distinguish the two things. Both are important – the second is far easier to achieve than the first.
In TN, the aspiration was supplied by Kamaraj very early on. Going on to college after 12th is a mechanical thing except for some really backward communities.
I also dont know what to make of the data Kerala GER is only 23 compared to TN 41. Source MHRD
[…] atleast one Outside Group. At the state level, things are totally absurd. I have proved that in Tamilnadu the situation is out of control. There are no students from the open category getting through PG Medical Tamilnadu Seats in top […]
Very interesting. Love this kind of data based reporting !
[…] year after year. To go back to our illustration. In TN, it is well known that OBC group takes 70-80% of the seats in the Open Category. In this scheme, the guaranteed-minimum is always met in Round 1. Therefore […]
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How is it that all the eleven players in the cricket team of Tamilnadu are Brahmins?