Reality Check India

Analysis of TN MBBS 2017-18 after NEET

Posted in Uncategorized by realitycheck on August 24, 2017

After a prolonged battle it appears that Tamilnadu is going to start Medical College admissions using the NEET common entrance exam.

I attempt to dispassionately analyze the numbers here and to openly address the questions as tough as they may be. ( Note : This post should not be construed to imply that I support NEET, I have opposed  NEET and was the lone supporter of Justice Altamas Kabir’s correct 2013 judgment outlawing NEET for a long time)

The Vertical Quota system.

At the root of the confusion is people have not been informed about the actual working of India’s reservation system.  So they get confused by terms like OC – Open Category and hence go down the wrong path of analysing the data.

I take this opportunity to explain the Vertical Quota system using a different method.

The total number of seats in TN Govt Medical Colleges in 2017-18 is 2652.  Now these 2652  are divided into 2 big buckets in proportion to the state reservation policy.

  • The open category bucket : 31% or 823 seats.  Everyone irrespective of group identity competes here.
  • The reserved bucket : 69% or 1829 seats.  This is subdivided into 6 exclusive buckets.  They are   BC 703 seats , MBC 530,  BC-Muslim (BCM) 93,  SC 401, SC-A (Arunthathiyar) 76, ST 26 seats.  Note that each of these groups are exclusive – a high ranking SC cannot get into the BC quota for example.

 

OPEN       RESERVED  |   BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
823        1829      |   703        530        93      401     76      26    

What is this FC (Forward caste) ?  During the 2007 Ashok Kumar Thakur case  Justice KG Balakrishnan exasperatedly asked.  “Is there a list of Forward castes?”  It was met with silence.  The technical answer is “any person who does not have a Caste (Community) Certificate is considered to be a Forward caste for the purpose of which you are asking the question”.

This so-called Forward Caste is only allowed to compete in the 823 Open seats along with all the others. The other groups have their own quota OVER and ABOVE what they win in the Open seats. I have explained in The real difference between Vertical and Horizontal Quotas in India that the Over and Above system is called the “Vertical Quota” and the Minimum Guarantee is called the “Horizontal Quota”.  We are here looking at the Vertical Quota method.

So lets jump to the numbers. Once again recall the Total number of seats in Govt Medical Colleges in TN is 2652.

 

2652 TOTAL 

823  OPEN COMPETITION RESULTS

FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
211       434        97         44      36      1       0
25.6%     52.7%      11.8%      5.3%    4.4%    0.1%    0%
7.6%      72.1%      14.0%      3.2%    2.8%    0.3%    0%     - 2015-16

703   BC Quota 
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         703        0          0       0       0       0

530   MBC (Most Backward ) 
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         0          530        0       0       0       0

93   BC-Muslim  Quota 
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         0          0          93      0       0       0

401  SC 
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         0          0          0       401     0       0

76   SCA
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         0          0          0       0       76      0

26   ST
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         0          0          0       0       0       26

FINAL RESULTS - Add up Each column 
------
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
211       1137       627        137     437     77      26
8.0%      42.8%      23.6%      5.2%    16.5%   2.9%    1%        2017-18
2.2%(48)  47.7%      25.6%      4.5%    18.9%   3.0%    1%        2016-17
2.3%      46.4%      26.6%      4.6%    19.1%   3.1%    1%        2015-16


TOTAL CANDIDATES
----------------
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
1810      14738      5851       1414    2991    332     76
6.7%      54.1%      21.5%      5.2%    11%     1.2%    0.3%     2017-18
4.7%      41%        21.4%      5.4%    23%     3.4%    0.9%     2015-16

 

Key Takeways

  1. Only 6.7% of the candidate pool are from all the Forward Castes put together.
  2. The 6.7% won 8.0% of the total seats.
  3. 93.3% of Tamilnadu MBBS candidates are classified as Backward under some category even with NEET.
  4. The Forward Castes in 2017-18 have scored 211 MBBS spots. This is a dramatic increase from 2016-17 where they were only able to score 48 seats.  This breaks a 10+ year trend.
  5. Even with NEET the BC group dominates the open category taking 52.7% of open seats.
  6. The total number of FC candidates increased 2% this year compared to the last.

One of the TV Channels was propagating falsehood by interpreting the rank lists as if there were no quota system at all. I thought I would add that part too . How would the 2652 seats be distributed if there were no quota system at all in TN.

 

NO QUOTAS AT ALL
----------------
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
536       1484       359        123     144     6       0
20.9%     57.9%      14.0%      4.8%    5.6%    0.2%    0%        2017-18


-LOSS/+GAIN DUE TO QUOTA
-------------------------
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
-325      -447       +268       +14     +293    +71     +26


For arguments sake if you removed reservation system from TN completely.

  1. The FC group would gain 325 seats
  2. The BC group would gain 447 seats.  Note that the gain % here would be smaller due to larger population, but there is a HUGE catch here. I will explain shortly.
  3. All other groups would lose.

So the quota system ironically is hurting the BC group !!

How do you interpret this seemingly absurd result?  The answer is very complicated and goes to the depths of the Idea of India political system we have established.  Each group such as BC is in reality an omnibus group of castes who themselves vastly vary in abilities or disabilities if you will. Just because the BC group itself is doing well does not mean every caste inside the group are doing equally well.  It is important to keep this in mind. These MBBS results over the years are a foolproof indication that the BC group  include castes that have been incorrectly classified as Backward even though they do not share the disabilities of other components of the BC group. This opacity happens to be a foundation issue of the Dravidian Movement and the entire Idea of India superstructure. Hence you can see that requests to analyze the breakup are rebuked such as what happened in the Janarthanam Committee. TN refused to provide breakup to the Supreme Court.

What about the Paappaan (Tamizh Brahmin) ?

This obsession with one group is a feature of Dravidian rule we have to live with. Most of the propaganda on the internet on this issue are raising the bogeyman that Tamizh Brahmins are returning through “back door” . This is in reaction to increased number of seats (211 out of 2652)  the entire FC group has scored.  A cursory glance of the ranks indicate a very large number of students in the FC have Kerala Hindu or Christian sounding names, along with North Indian who have settled in TN, etc. Yet, we need to address this single point focus of Dravidian activists.

Will the Tamizh Brahmins come back through back door? Answer is  Not any time soon. The hump of the Tamizh Brahmins may have left the state. However the following is possible.

  1. Easy exams result in the successful student profile following the actual demographic profile. When this happens, those who have exclusive quota will be Drawn to participate and those without that would be Repelled.  This is because easy exams result in the Open Category following the social demographic profile. So there is very little to be gained from test preparation.
  2. Tougher exams follow the test preparation profile not the social demographic profile. So even if the FC (say Tamizh Brahmin) are confined to 31% they will feel test preparation can help them compete. Hence they maybe Drawn to participate.
  3. This “Participation incentive’ can draw more FC into aiming for MBBS.
  4. Downplaying efforts of these kids who studied hard for years by using terms like “Back Door” are uncalled for.

So who is the FC ?

In Tamilnadu it is common knowledge that only Tamizh Brahmins and Saiva Vellalars are undoubtedly FC.  There are others of course in a relatively advanced state like TN, but they may have a BC/MBC synonym  they can use. Even the Saiva Vellalars may be resourceful about that, because they are not the exclusion focus of the Dravidian movement . To this mix add  students from other states  who have settled in Tamilnadu like Malayalees and Seths (North Indians). This other-state students  usually cant get community certificate in TN, so they are reporting as FC.

In  2015-16, 16-17 and also prior to that consistently only  ~4.5% of the MBBS candidates would be from the FC group.  It cant be anyone’s case that in addition to Tamizh Brahmin, Saiva Vellalar, and other states students – all others forward castes only account for <1% put together.  This is especially true in a sector like MBBS admission where you expect upper castes to be attracted to.
Hope I have hit all the key points , no matter how uncomfortable.

Links


  • MBBS Seat matrix for TN Govt colleges from tnhealth.org   Seat availability from tnhealth.org N1708901
  • NEET Merit List for Govt Colleges  from tnhealth.org Merit List from tnhealth.org N1708893
  • MBBS 2016-17 analysis https://realitycheck.wordpress.com/2016/06/20/analysis-of-tamilnadu-mbbs-2016-17-admissions/
  • MBBS 2015-16 analysis https://realitycheck.wordpress.com/2015/06/21/analysis-of-tamilnadu-mbbs-admissions-2015-16/
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