Reality Check India

Analysis of TN MBBS 2017-18 after NEET

Posted in Uncategorized by realitycheck on August 24, 2017

After a prolonged battle it appears that Tamilnadu is going to start Medical College admissions using the NEET common entrance exam.

I attempt to dispassionately analyze the numbers here and to openly address the questions as tough as they may be. ( Note : This post should not be construed to imply that I support NEET, I have opposed  NEET and was the lone supporter of Justice Altamas Kabir’s correct 2013 judgment outlawing NEET for a long time)

The Vertical Quota system.

At the root of the confusion is people have not been informed about the actual working of India’s reservation system.  So they get confused by terms like OC – Open Category and hence go down the wrong path of analysing the data.

I take this opportunity to explain the Vertical Quota system using a different method.

The total number of seats in TN Govt Medical Colleges in 2017-18 is 2652.  Now these 2652  are divided into 2 big buckets in proportion to the state reservation policy.

  • The open category bucket : 31% or 823 seats.  Everyone irrespective of group identity competes here.
  • The reserved bucket : 69% or 1829 seats.  This is subdivided into 6 exclusive buckets.  They are   BC 703 seats , MBC 530,  BC-Muslim (BCM) 93,  SC 401, SC-A (Arunthathiyar) 76, ST 26 seats.  Note that each of these groups are exclusive – a high ranking SC cannot get into the BC quota for example.

 

OPEN       RESERVED  |   BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
823        1829      |   703        530        93      401     76      26    

What is this FC (Forward caste) ?  During the 2007 Ashok Kumar Thakur case  Justice KG Balakrishnan exasperatedly asked.  “Is there a list of Forward castes?”  It was met with silence.  The technical answer is “any person who does not have a Caste (Community) Certificate is considered to be a Forward caste for the purpose of which you are asking the question”.

This so-called Forward Caste is only allowed to compete in the 823 Open seats along with all the others. The other groups have their own quota OVER and ABOVE what they win in the Open seats. I have explained in The real difference between Vertical and Horizontal Quotas in India that the Over and Above system is called the “Vertical Quota” and the Minimum Guarantee is called the “Horizontal Quota”.  We are here looking at the Vertical Quota method.

So lets jump to the numbers. Once again recall the Total number of seats in Govt Medical Colleges in TN is 2652.

 

2652 TOTAL 

823  OPEN COMPETITION RESULTS

FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
211       434        97         44      36      1       0
25.6%     52.7%      11.8%      5.3%    4.4%    0.1%    0%
7.6%      72.1%      14.0%      3.2%    2.8%    0.3%    0%     - 2015-16

703   BC Quota 
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         703        0          0       0       0       0

530   MBC (Most Backward ) 
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         0          530        0       0       0       0

93   BC-Muslim  Quota 
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         0          0          93      0       0       0

401  SC 
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         0          0          0       401     0       0

76   SCA
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         0          0          0       0       76      0

26   ST
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
0         0          0          0       0       0       26

FINAL RESULTS - Add up Each column 
------
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
211       1137       627        137     437     77      26
8.0%      42.8%      23.6%      5.2%    16.5%   2.9%    1%        2017-18
2.2%(48)  47.7%      25.6%      4.5%    18.9%   3.0%    1%        2016-17
2.3%      46.4%      26.6%      4.6%    19.1%   3.1%    1%        2015-16


TOTAL CANDIDATES
----------------
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
1810      14738      5851       1414    2991    332     76
6.7%      54.1%      21.5%      5.2%    11%     1.2%    0.3%     2017-18
4.7%      41%        21.4%      5.4%    23%     3.4%    0.9%     2015-16

 

Key Takeways

  1. Only 6.7% of the candidate pool are from all the Forward Castes put together.
  2. The 6.7% won 8.0% of the total seats.
  3. 93.3% of Tamilnadu MBBS candidates are classified as Backward under some category even with NEET.
  4. The Forward Castes in 2017-18 have scored 211 MBBS spots. This is a dramatic increase from 2016-17 where they were only able to score 48 seats.  This breaks a 10+ year trend.
  5. Even with NEET the BC group dominates the open category taking 52.7% of open seats.
  6. The total number of FC candidates increased 2% this year compared to the last.

One of the TV Channels was propagating falsehood by interpreting the rank lists as if there were no quota system at all. I thought I would add that part too . How would the 2652 seats be distributed if there were no quota system at all in TN.

 

NO QUOTAS AT ALL
----------------
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
536       1484       359        123     144     6       0
20.9%     57.9%      14.0%      4.8%    5.6%    0.2%    0%        2017-18


-LOSS/+GAIN DUE TO QUOTA
-------------------------
FC        BC         MBC        BCM     SC      SCA     ST
-325      -447       +268       +14     +293    +71     +26


For arguments sake if you removed reservation system from TN completely.

  1. The FC group would gain 325 seats
  2. The BC group would gain 447 seats.  Note that the gain % here would be smaller due to larger population, but there is a HUGE catch here. I will explain shortly.
  3. All other groups would lose.

So the quota system ironically is hurting the BC group !!

How do you interpret this seemingly absurd result?  The answer is very complicated and goes to the depths of the Idea of India political system we have established.  Each group such as BC is in reality an omnibus group of castes who themselves vastly vary in abilities or disabilities if you will. Just because the BC group itself is doing well does not mean every caste inside the group are doing equally well.  It is important to keep this in mind. These MBBS results over the years are a foolproof indication that the BC group  include castes that have been incorrectly classified as Backward even though they do not share the disabilities of other components of the BC group. This opacity happens to be a foundation issue of the Dravidian Movement and the entire Idea of India superstructure. Hence you can see that requests to analyze the breakup are rebuked such as what happened in the Janarthanam Committee. TN refused to provide breakup to the Supreme Court.

What about the Paappaan (Tamizh Brahmin) ?

This obsession with one group is a feature of Dravidian rule we have to live with. Most of the propaganda on the internet on this issue are raising the bogeyman that Tamizh Brahmins are returning through “back door” . This is in reaction to increased number of seats (211 out of 2652)  the entire FC group has scored.  A cursory glance of the ranks indicate a very large number of students in the FC have Kerala Hindu or Christian sounding names, along with North Indian who have settled in TN, etc. Yet, we need to address this single point focus of Dravidian activists.

Will the Tamizh Brahmins come back through back door? Answer is  Not any time soon. The hump of the Tamizh Brahmins may have left the state. However the following is possible.

  1. Easy exams result in the successful student profile following the actual demographic profile. When this happens, those who have exclusive quota will be Drawn to participate and those without that would be Repelled.  This is because easy exams result in the Open Category following the social demographic profile. So there is very little to be gained from test preparation.
  2. Tougher exams follow the test preparation profile not the social demographic profile. So even if the FC (say Tamizh Brahmin) are confined to 31% they will feel test preparation can help them compete. Hence they maybe Drawn to participate.
  3. This “Participation incentive’ can draw more FC into aiming for MBBS.
  4. Downplaying efforts of these kids who studied hard for years by using terms like “Back Door” are uncalled for.

So who is the FC ?

In Tamilnadu it is common knowledge that only Tamizh Brahmins and Saiva Vellalars are undoubtedly FC.  There are others of course in a relatively advanced state like TN, but they may have a BC/MBC synonym  they can use. Even the Saiva Vellalars may be resourceful about that, because they are not the exclusion focus of the Dravidian movement . To this mix add  students from other states  who have settled in Tamilnadu like Malayalees and Seths (North Indians). This other-state students  usually cant get community certificate in TN, so they are reporting as FC.

In  2015-16, 16-17 and also prior to that consistently only  ~4.5% of the MBBS candidates would be from the FC group.  It cant be anyone’s case that in addition to Tamizh Brahmin, Saiva Vellalar, and other states students – all others forward castes only account for <1% put together.  This is especially true in a sector like MBBS admission where you expect upper castes to be attracted to.
Hope I have hit all the key points , no matter how uncomfortable.

Links


  • MBBS Seat matrix for TN Govt colleges from tnhealth.org   Seat availability from tnhealth.org N1708901
  • NEET Merit List for Govt Colleges  from tnhealth.org Merit List from tnhealth.org N1708893
  • MBBS 2016-17 analysis https://realitycheck.wordpress.com/2016/06/20/analysis-of-tamilnadu-mbbs-2016-17-admissions/
  • MBBS 2015-16 analysis https://realitycheck.wordpress.com/2015/06/21/analysis-of-tamilnadu-mbbs-admissions-2015-16/
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26 Responses

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  1. Just Get MBBS (@justgetmbbs) said, on August 25, 2017 at 7:34 am

    Great analysis as usual. Presented the facts in an easy to understand way. Sad to see this discrimination.

    I completely misunderstood the seat allocation system and this article helps in a great way. Thanks.

    Continue your good work. I support your views. I am a NEET supporter, though; rather, I should say I am against admissions using 12th board marks in Tamil Nadu.

  2. sandeep gupta (@sandeepblore) said, on August 25, 2017 at 8:51 am

    Very good & correct analysis of the practise of compensatory seats which is followed in Bihar & Tamil Nadu (there may be many other states following this but definitely not followed in my state Karnataka )
    I believe NEET should be the basis of all MBBS/BDS admissions except state quota seats (both 85% govt and state quota “subsidised” private)
    So there should be 2 exams 1 national level NEET & another one at the state level
    So dependence on only 1 exam will not be there & problem of travelling to give entrance will not be there as 2nd exam will be conducted by home state

  3. themissingheart (@Bee_Jay_Heart) said, on August 25, 2017 at 12:30 pm

    Just go to any matrimony site or others. You can see the proportion of doctors in caste based along with the population. Only OC has more educated people than the rest combined. Also in Tamilnadu not like north India with much higher OC population,. Tamilnadu has more than 65 percent of OBC and remaining scattered across religion and castes[Including SC/ST]. So writing an article with one side is like knotting one side of the rope in the boat and leave the other side hanging and thinking that boat is safely harbored. So better do your false analysis and brainwash people in the north. Don’t come to the south.

    • Mani said, on August 27, 2017 at 1:33 pm

      I did not realise that matrimonial sites are the yardstick for this counter analysis. How can a different context can be a yardstick to analyse this. It really amuses me…!!!

    • Cruise said, on August 27, 2017 at 4:36 pm

      You are an idiot that wont understand that your other BC brethren are stealing it under your nise, wake up

  4. Stephen james said, on August 25, 2017 at 1:19 pm

    Mr. Sheshadri & Mr. Pakshinathan, good evening. Pl have some decency while putting your views, don’t use word Nazi. Can you please tell me why other states did not open more medical colleges as done by the Dravidian intellectual. Even modi ruled Gujarat for 15 years, not able to open medical colleges. India is not a single state. It is one nation with many states, others cannot enjoy the hard work put by Dravidian’s. One think I should appreciate, you agreed the Dravidian are more intellectual then other. Pl ask the other state to open more college. You people suppressed the people for years. You should be ashamed to justify the NEET. the tamilnadu is much ahead in all areas as said by the noble price winner Mr. Amerthya Sen.It is not the quota alone, it is future if all Tamils. One thing I want to tell you, 90% of CBSE students passed NEET ONLY after attending coaching classes by spending huge amount. All are from high society. Don’t suppress the locals, poor, downtrodden people.

    • paranji kuppuswamy sowmyanarayanan said, on August 26, 2017 at 6:59 am

      Dear Mr. Stephen,
      Your are little baised in your views. The reservation system followed in India is like “if you dont know how to make a poor A rich, make a rich to poor”.
      For the sake of of argument let us agree that the “down troddens” were suppressed by the upper caste for the past 70 years. The solution should have been that the down trodden should have been given special previlages and other caste intelligence should not have been suppressed. This would have helped our country to develop on the equittable basis.
      The so called Dravidian have amassed wealth thro political route. From the year that is 1967 the Dravidian parties have been rulling Tamilnadu. In the last 50 years how many BC, SC and ST communities have come up in life . Going by normal standards in the span of 50 years the reservation should have been done away with. Dravidian parties are interested in keeping the reservation intact for monetary and political gains. How many rich SCs and BCs woukd like to give helping hands to their counter parts ? How many SC and BCs would like to Marry poorer SCs and BCs. None.
      There are SCs and BCs who are even now live in abject poverty and have no means for good education. What is that these Dravidian parties have done? The so called development have been only sustained by the dravidian parties. All the Good work was done by Late Mr. KAMARAJ. do you know how many govt . Schools these so called Dravidian parties have opened . NONE. Dravidian parties are good at speech and nothimg else. It is very Sad that our Tamilnadu people have defeated a great leader like Mr. KAMARAJ.

  5. rc2 said, on August 25, 2017 at 2:48 pm

    The vexed issue of MRC explained:

    A lot of comments on my Twitter TL today from people who are confused by the MBBS allocation where BC seats are increasing in some colleges as the counseling progresses. Someone posted a photo showing Tanjore Medical College BC seats increased to 57 from 42 in the morning. How does this work?

    Two sources of confusion.

    1. FC do not have any quota whereas every other group has an exclusive quota. OC means ‘Open Competition’.
    2. The seat matrix in each college includes a OC along with the exclusive quotas. So this can be misleading.

    The way it works is the following.

    On 1st round of allocations (known as counseling in India) the first 823 ranks are called and asked to select. This includes the 211 (FC) and the 434 (BC) etc. So you may think that the will be distributed among the OC quota in various colleges. That is not how it works.

    Of the 823, the FC group must select only from the OC allocation in each college. The BC group can select from either the OC allocation or BC allocation in EACH college. So what happens is the following. The top colleges (MMC, Stanley, KMC, Madurai) are filled up because the BC are selecting their quota in each college.

    To compensate for the loss of BC only seats in these top colleges, they convert the OC seats in other colleges to BC. This is unfair but does not deny any FC a seat.

    Why is it unfair then?
    Even within the Open Competition category (823 seats) a lower ranked BC/MBC might get a better college over a higher ranked FC because they are allowed to dig into their exclusive quotas. So this kind of messes up the concept of open competition.

    Think about the alternative. Let us say that the first 823 ranks (31%) are only allowed to pick from the OC seats,that would lead to an absurd situation. An OBC with rank 823 might end up in Theni Medical but an OBC who just missed OC because he/she ranked 824 will get the prized MMC. These are not accidental things,they have been litigated and ironed out.

    Does this help clear the air?

    • Aravind Gandhi said, on August 25, 2017 at 8:07 pm

      There is a specific name to this process! I remember people saying during my MBBS councelling! But I forgot the terminology!
      Can you give me links for the litigations on this issue?

  6. Rama D said, on August 25, 2017 at 3:56 pm

    Very detailed and covered most of the aspects of this issue. But the most important point of whether to have ‘Reservation’ at all in medical education, as these students will ‘somehow’ pass the course and get the license to treat/kill. When the irreplaceable life is being risked with reservations with unqualified students, the question becomes all the more pertinent.

  7. Mahesh rajaraman said, on August 26, 2017 at 1:57 am

    Very good analysis. How does this look for pan india and how many seats are available pan india for a candidate domicile of tamil nadu in fc category both in govt and private colleges respectively

  8. Sucharita Nanivadekar said, on August 26, 2017 at 6:24 am

    Yes. Brahmin and other upper caste candidates with far better perfomances are discriminated against by the tyranny of politics and population numbers.

  9. Jay sankhla said, on August 26, 2017 at 7:08 am

    Can OBC catgery take..seat of genral categroy in neet exam..because in esic medical colleges ip quota low number genral categroy name in list bt I’m obc category student higher marks than genral categroy..soo im take seat or not in neet

  10. ramjiyahoo said, on August 27, 2017 at 9:55 am

    still one would argue (negatively) that in final results FC got 8% in 2017-18 from 2.2% in 2016-17. I guess it might be due to an arithmetic error. 8 % you have calculated is on 2652 whereas last year seat counts may be lesser. or please explain how FC % has increased from 2.2% to 8%. 2. How about Tamilnadu SC ST candidates who are unable to get seat in TN medical colleges but were able to get seats in non TN colleges, due to NEET advantage. This second point no one talks about so far

  11. Ram said, on August 29, 2017 at 6:06 pm

    Your current presentation reminds me the words of a thinker – it doesn’t matter what you have, it really matters what you do with what you have.
    One of the judgments of Hon’ble Supreme Court states that “Despite any number of appointment belonging to the backward classes against the general category posts the given percentage of reservation has to be provided in addition.” Another judgment states that “one swallow cannot make the summer”.
    Similar analysis, if done, with Agri/AH&F admission will give even poorer representation for FC. Why medicine only is attractive? Sriram Commerce College, Delhi, saw 80% enrollment in B.Com., from TN in the past; that too it is stated that one particular School supplemented 15% for it.
    Statistics is like bikini; where to hide and where to show determines the charm.
    Why not we argue for proportional representation. By approximating the current population, reservation may be given in proportion, as it was prior to 1950s; FC -12%, BC -42%, MBC – 24%, SC -20%, ST – 2%, without open competition. In such cases, 2% preference to non-creamy layer within each group may be given (exclude ST from general rule). Such a thought is an inclusive strategy in a society which cannot shed the caste on socio-cultural perspective. There won’t be any heartburn.
    Recently, I have seen a news that some global strategy consultants advising for such methods for structural change. With the existing constitution, of course, it is impermissible. Solutions differ from the State to State; similarly it differs for the nature of competition.
    It is true to note that lesser qualified among higher segment never line up for socially low profile employment with socially weaker sections. Now, UK considers the caste abolition in public institutions, such as temples. Some of the countries witness growth of persons relinquised religion.
    For the education of first born child, all other children cannot be curtailed education.
    Some are telling about economic criteria. Recent GoI data on socio-economic census shows 92% of rural Indian households (about 60% of total populace) had member having highest income less than Rs.10000. Considering it as sample, it is easy to say that more than 95% are economically weaker. Then we should give more than 95% reservation.
    Objectors say it is a cancer, those advocating say its food supplement. Only an alien doctor who is known for neutrality can find the right medicine.
    In the present competitive world, data-mining will definitely benefit to achieve a prospective market.

  12. Mohan vanan said, on September 1, 2017 at 4:54 pm

    CHENNAI: Reversing the principle of reservation for the backward communities, over half of the medical seats under the all India quota will now be reserved for candidates from upper castes — the open category students. “Counselling for reserved (49.5 per cent) and unreserved (50.5 per cent) category students will happen separately this year,” Union Health Secretary C K Mishra told Express.

    That is, even the high-performing candidates from the BC, SC and ST communities will be accommodated only in the 49.5 per cent reserved for them — leaving fewer seats for the truly backward. It began with a note in the CBSE NEET Information Bulletin 2017: “Candidates from creamy layer and those who do not come under Central list of OBC are advised to mention their category as Unreserved (UR).”

    Until last year, score cards of general or OC candidates had only details about the all India rank. But this year, score cards of OC candidates carried their ‘unreserved’ ranks alongside their all India ranks.

    Related Article
    85% quota for State Board students in medical admissions
    ESIC medical college not surrendering seats for all India quota this year
    For instance, in one of the score cards, a student from Tamil Nadu, an unreserved candidate, had his rank jump from the 80,000s in all India rank to the 40,000s in the new category – Unreserved.

    This would have an effect on the 9,775 seats that form the 15 per cent allocated under the all India quota in the 470 medical colleges across India.

    Earlier, the admission for reserved seats took place only after the open quota seats got filled.

    A Scheduled Caste candidate topping the overall ranking in general merit category would have resulted in a seat opening up for another reserved category student.

  13. orientviews said, on September 5, 2017 at 7:23 pm

    But you have ignored one major facts.. the CBSE vs State board issue.. the general accusation is that State board students are deprived of the medical seats and only CBSE students are favored.

  14. Sivakumar said, on September 9, 2017 at 8:02 pm

    Does the above-said 2652 include the 15% All-India category seats as well? Any insights on how much TN students are losing out because of the 15% AI category enforced through NEET? Also, additional insights on how many TN students are able to get to other states’ 15% AI quota (in other words, in the long run, will more TN students be able to capitalize the 15% AI quota in other States, in case the quality of education/prep for NEET improves)?

    • ravi said, on September 17, 2017 at 1:27 am

      Sir, please get to know that 15% AIQ was irrespective of NEET and it was there for many years. why you are tying this with NEET.

  15. jayendran said, on September 10, 2017 at 1:13 pm

    I have been following for last 3 years. Again an excellent analysis. a private vs govt school analysis could helpful. In tirunelveli a govt girls school has sent 8 students to medical college this year.which they couldn’t achive for decades.

    • Krish Harikrishnan said, on September 11, 2017 at 7:17 pm

      Why don’t these politicians who have amassed crores of wealth and care so much for the SC & st start separate colleges exclusively for these people. They will not. Keeping the poor, poorer & hungry, while they mint money is the clear objective here. Shame on these tyrants. NEET is the perfect answer to develop the poor & bring in quality doctors.

      Why is no one talking about CMC vellore which admits only Kerala christians into 85% of seats. Political yardsticks vary for different religions.

      Bigotry & hypocrisy at its very best.

  16. RCI Supplrter said, on September 12, 2017 at 10:12 pm

    Dear RCI,

    Please help me connect with you offline – it’s very important. I need to email you – please give me an address I can reach you at.

    Thank you.

  17. D Balasundaram said, on September 15, 2017 at 10:47 am

    Good analysis. I do not have the means of verifying the correctness though.
    What would happen if allowed competition from the lower ranked category for all the “buckets” just as it is done for OC?

    Say fill up the OC with the highest rankers from all category. Then go to next category, that is BC leaving out OC candidates. Then go to MBC leaving out the OC and BC and so on? Would this benefit the SC and ST, who in my view need to be pushed up most?

  18. ravi said, on September 15, 2017 at 11:45 am

    in each category how many of them came from state board? the real problem is a small group studied in cbsc schools can spent money for neet coaching grab most of the mbbs seats irrespective cast and quota…neet is the real back door for the cbsc and elite state board students…so poor people wants to close that back door for all the casts…admission based on state board merit list is the one and only solution let everybody get main door entry.. it could be a real justice, apart from that all are manipulations and tactics in convenience of privileged and fortunate peoples of the nation…

  19. Gopalrao Thukaram said, on September 15, 2017 at 4:28 pm

    Can you write in Tamil for thinnai.com?

  20. Best NEET Academy in Andhra Pradesh said, on October 18, 2017 at 9:36 am

    Thank you for sharing such a nice and interesting blog with us. Hope it might be much useful for us. keep on updating…!!


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