Reality Check India

Analysis of Maharashtra quota distribution – Medical UG 2019

Posted in Uncategorized by realitycheck on July 2, 2020

The complexity of India’s strict quota system of social justice repels many from attempting to critically analyze its inner workings.  The almost total absence of informed analysis by the establishment thinktanks makes it even harder for the average citizen to get over the information hump and provide meaningful debate.  Lastly, the “transformative jurisprudence of Idea of India” offers no searching questions of the system.

quota

In this environment, we have the new raging quota issues of 1) EWS (poor forward caste) reservation 2) Maratha quota in Maharashtra and 3) The Tamilnadu demand for OBC quota in all India seats.  They are all scheduled to be heard in Supreme Court around the July 7th 2020 time. The Congress coalition govt in MH plans to defend it. However we do not know what the jurisprudence principles are ? What the tests are which will form the basis of these hearings. The #IOI juris never developed these.

How does #core3 help?

We provide the correct conceptual framework to analyze these seemingly intractable issues by stepping outside the establishment constraints.   First we identify the differences between a Vertical Quota ( over and above)  and a Horizontal Quota (minimum guarantee).  Here is my exchange with Christoper Jaffrelot a very important intellectual in the #IOI ecosystem.   It has to do with how social justice in the form of quotas ought to be measured.

Short answer (hard) : You should survey the beneficiaries rather than surveying the general population.

Long answer (easy) : You do not need a deep general caste census of socio economic conditions of every group.  You just need to measure how each group participates in the sector in which you are trying to impose a quota shape.

The correct question to ask ,which our jurisprudence completely misses is :

If caste-X gets its pro-rata participation share in the open competition what is the justification for further reservation for caste-X?  Remember vertical quota system is over and above. 

In this light, analyzing quota effects is relatively easy.  You just have to look for data about distribution after applying the quota shape and see how groups are faring.

The BJP govt in Maharashtra announced a 16% quota for Maratha caste in education, which was reduced to 12% by the Bombay High Court.   

Pursuant to this the 2019 NEET merit list was prepared.  This provides all the data we need to verify the capabilities of each group. A health check. So lets do it here.

Source of data PDF (NEET UG Provisional Merit List Govt of Maharashtra 7/7/2019)  : Maharashtra-MBBS-provisional-merit-list

Summary :

  • The input number provides a useful proxy for the overall population of each group who are eligible.  This is because NEET does not do shaping the eligibility pool unlike JEE-Advanced it just uses a minimum cutoff.
  • Input : Confirms that MH is a high unreserved population state. Even after splitting out the erstwhile forward castes of Marathas and the EWS you have 34.3% unreserved students.  Therefore until 2019 Maharashtra had 50% unreserved ! Contrast with the other extreme Tamilnadu which has only 4 to 7% unreserved.
  • No quota : In open system the SC gets nearly washed out, the OBC get below their population share.  The SEBC (Maratha) and the EWS get more than their input share. Hence it is clear that both the SEBC and the EWS need justification.  The SC ST demonstrate disability and reservation is justified.  Method : Use a top 1000 rank analysis.  This is a valid simplification because ideally the total number of seats should be used. The shape is unlikely to differ.
  • Open Category analysis : If you do a Top 1000 seats, the open category is 282 seats. The performance of each group here crucial to measure.  Once again SC shows real disability but SEBC (Maratha) and EWS are only slightly lesser than their pop share.  The Unreserved show a very strong performance winning 183 of the 282 seats (65%) ,but that is all they will get.  The other groups get a Top Up.  In the final reading of the top 1000 the UR who would have won 525 without the quota end up with 183.

The #core3 suggestion is to use a HORIZONTAL quota system for groups what participate well (using some objective quantitative method) in the open category rather than a vertical quota.

Raw data  

INPUT
================

GROUP       CANDIDATES    PERCENT   RESERVATION
OBC              11929      27.5%         19.0%
SC                6230      14.4%         13.0%
ST                1526       3.5%          7.0%
VJ                1432       3.3%          3.0%
NT                 983       2.2%          5.5% 
SEBC(MARATHA)     4380      10.1%         14.0% 
FC-EWS            2000       4.6%         10.0% 
ALL   RESERVED   28480      65.6%         71.5%
FC               14906      34.3%         28.5%
TOTAL APPL       43386     100.0%        100.0% 


TOP 1000 RANK ANALYSIS  (WITHOUT ANY RESERVATION) 
==================================================
                                        % POP
OBC                230      23.0%       27.5%        -4.5%
SC                  20       2.0%       14.4%       -12.4%
ST                   4       0.4%        3.5%        -3.1%
VJ                  13       1.3%        3.3%        -2.0%
NT                  45       4.5%        2.2%        +2.3%
SEBC(MARATHA)      114      11.4%       10.1%        +1.3%
FC-EWS              49       4.9%        4.6%        +0.3%
ALL   RESERVED     475      47.5%       65.6%       -18.1%
FC                 525      52.5%       34.3%       +18.1%
TOTAL SEATS       1000     100.0%      100.0%         0.0%



IN OPEN CATEGORY 282 SEATS
---------------------------
                                       % QUOT    TOPUP    FINAL (A+D)
OBC                 50      17.7%       19.0%      190       240
SC                   4       1.4%       13.0%      130       134
ST                   1       0.3%        7.0%       70        71
VJ                   4       1.4%        3.0%       30        34
NT                   7       2.5%        5.5%       55        62
SEBC(MARATHA)       22       7.8%       14.0%      140       162
FC-EWS              11       3.9%       10.0%      100       111
ALL   RESERVED      99      35.1%       71.5%      715       817
FC                 183      64.9%       28.5%        0       183
TOTAL SEATS        282     100.0%      100.0%      715      1000


WIN LOSS PER GROUP 
------------------
                NOQUOTA  WITHQUOTA    GAIN/LOSS   
OBC                230         240       +10
SC                  20         134      +114
ST                   4          71       +66
VJ                  13          34       +21
NT                  45          62       +17
SEBC(MARATHA)      114         162       +48   
FC-EWS              49         111       +62  
ALL   RESERVED     475         817      +342
FC                 525         183      -342   -65.1%
TOTAL SEATS       1000        1000         0


FCs lose 65% of seats 

3 Responses

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  1. Pilgrim said, on July 3, 2020 at 11:13 pm

    Since you and others have been tweeting a lot about China lately

    Five or ten years ago, most experts on China regarded predictions of the early demise of Chinese communist rule as ridiculous or fanciful. The party, they insisted, had become extraordinarily institutionalized and effective at governing. But today—even with all of China’s impressive economic achievements—more and more experts believe there is a political crisis brewing. In clinging to its absolute political monopoly, in resisting any serious effort to separate the party from the state and the judicial system, in demonizing and arresting dissenting voices calling for democratic reform, the CCP is skating on thin ice.

    When you skate on ice, you can’t necessarily tell when it is thick or thin. It may look perfectly sturdy—able to sustain a virtuoso performance—until suddenly it no longer is. Today, China’s Communist Party may be one big crisis—an environmental catastrophe, a collapse of the residential housing market, a massive corruption scandal at the highest levels—away from a snowballing of protests that leads to the sudden collapse of its authority.

    From the article ‘Chinese Communism and the 70-Year Itch’

  2. VR said, on July 15, 2020 at 5:06 am

    I am a big fan of TM Krishna, the vocalist. I know a little bit about his political/liberal views and that he seeks to disrupt the frozen social hierarchy. Whatever his views, I find constant toxicity towards him unpalatable.

  3. JV said, on July 20, 2020 at 5:28 am

    Should the buck not stop with NSA Ajit Doval?

    Well, yes, because he is supposed to ingest all intel, field reports, military briefings, analyses and recommendations from the China Study Group, et al, and alight on policy options for the PM.

    https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/will-modi-go-to-war-with-china/20200720.htm


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