Nuclear deal – 16 rupees per unit

First, get your butt over to Barbarindians and read his take on the nuclear deal.

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I would like to add :

1. Why has there been almost no capacity addition in the past 5 years in states like Tamilnadu / Karnataka ?

2. What is wrong with coal based thermal plants ?

3. I pay Rs 3.50 per KwH (unit) for thermal and hydro power today. The estimate for nuclear power is Rs 16 per unit.

4. Farmers will expect free nuclear power too (esp the big ones). They need to power their A/Cs and 5 KW pumpsets. Who is going to foot the bill ?

5. Scientists will favour the deal for a variety of reasons, some of them purely professional in nature.

6. US Citizens of Indian origin who have lived half their lives in the US will favour the deal. Not important for obvious reasons.

7. I dearly hope they have war-gamed the scenario where Pakistan decides to test. In the Lok Sabha debates, I heard Pranab Mukherjee thunder “We dont need nuclear weapons to win a war”. Childlike innocence wins wars, perhaps ?

Some advantages of the deal.

1. Half constructed reactor, Kudankulam,  will finally see the light of day.

2. Perhaps we will see 3-4 GE reactors soon that will ease the power crisis. Hopefully metro areas like Mumbai, Noida, Gurgaon will benefit. We still have to address the business models of these reactors, of course !

3. Even without engaging with any of the above issues, the deal is good simply because “A deal is better than no deal”. At least this gives us an option of using nuclear power which we would not have without the deal. Who knows, maybe we can light up our streets like the Champs-EIysees. I am also guessing that without the deal, we would have to shut down all reactors shortly. We simply have no fuel left. In general, I am aligned with this view. The only pesky detail is the status and quality of the nuclear deterrent we have.

4. If we did not care about the quality of the nuclear deterrent, then most people would agree that the deal is better than no deal. The issue is then about choice not economics. There will be takers for both Kalyani Knock Out beer and expensive Cabernet Sauvignon wine. So, plowing along further in this line of thought, we then ask – “We have a kind-of-works deterrent, is that not good enough ?”. A little further, “Listen, this is about Kashmir and Pakistan – isnt it ?” Ultimately, what matters is the national consensus around this big ticket issue. Lately, there has been a spate of articles that are along the lines of “F** it – let em go !”. If the Indian state, represented SOLELY by the human beings in the parliament, shares this view then there is little sense opposing the deal. At least, I get to switch on my 2 ton split ai rconditioner in my swanky tax exempt SEZ apartment and finally get some peace and quiet.

Ok ! I will stop now.

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My take :

If the nuclear deal is all about feeding power to a chronically energy starved India, the arguments for the deal must be in terms of the business of nuclear electric power. I do not think we have reached the dead end for thermal power (coal and gas plants). For comparison, coal makes up 70% of Chinas power. These are not old plants either, they upped their thermal capacity by 20%+ just in 2007-08.