Analysis of Tamilnadu MBBS 2016-17 admissions

Here is a quick analysis of TN 2016-17 MBBS Admissions. With a few findings at the end.

How MBBS capacity is  partitioned

Total seats in Govt Medical Colleges	2172	100%
OPEN COMPETITION	673	31%
OBC	576	26.5%
BC-MUSLIMS	76	3.5%
MOST BACKWARD (MBC)	434	20%
SC	391	15%
SC-ARUNTHATHIYAAR	65	3%
ST	21	1%

Seats obtained by each group using Vertical Quota method

The quota device used in India is called Vertical Quota. Also known as the over and above scheme (thanks to Marc Galanter for this word)

Community	Seats obtained	Percent 2016-17	Percent 2015-16
Total seats in Govt Medical Colleges	2172	100%
OPEN COMPETITION	48	2.2%	2.3%
OBC	1036	47.7%	48.8%
BC-MUSLIMS	97	4.5%	4.5%
MOST BACKWARD (MBC)	557	25.6%	25.3%
SC	410	18.9%	15.9%
SC-ARUNTHATHIYAAR	67	3%	3%
ST	21	1%	1%

If there were no quota at all

Assuming there was no quota system at all in Tamilnadu. Here is how the seats would be allocated

(blue indicates a gain over the vertical quota system)

Community	Seats obtained	Percent 2016-17	Percent 2015-16
Total seats in Govt Medical Colleges	2172	100%
OPEN COMPETITION	156	7.2%	6.5%
OBC	1439	66.3%	73.3%
BC-MUSLIMS	73	3.4%	2.5%
MOST BACKWARD (MBC)	414	19.1%	15.2%
SC	83	3.8%	2.3%
SC-ARUNTHATHIYAAR	7	<1%	3%
ST	0	0%	0%

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If a hypothetical Horizontal quota method were used

As explained in “The real difference between horiontal and vertical quotas in India” Each group would  be allowed to scale up to the ‘minimum guarantee mark’ after the 1st round of allocations is done pretending there is no quota at all.  The following groups have shortfall ( MBC 20,  SC 308, SC-A 60, BC-Muslim 3, ST 21 = Total = 412 ) after the first round. The OBC and the General category seats will be knocked from the end until the minimum numbers are met for each group.  Based on rough calculations from the merit list – we estimate that Unreserved (OC or Upper Caste) loses about 20 seats  and the OBC loses 392 seats.

 

(blue indicates a gain over the vertical quota system)

Community	Seats obtained	Percent 2016-17	Gain % vs Vertical Quota*
Total seats in Govt Medical Colleges	2172	100%
OPEN COMPETITION	136	6.3%	183%
OBC	1047	47.8%	0.4%
BC-MUSLIMS	76	3.5%	-22%
MOST BACKWARD (MBC)	434	20%	-22%
SC	391	15%	-0.8%
SC-ARUNTHATHIYAAR	65	3%	0%
ST	21	1%	0%

• % Gain over Vertical Quota calculated as  : ( HQuotaSeats – VQuotaSeats)/HQuotaSeats %)

Source of data :  MBBS Provisional Merit List published at tnhealth.org (click on the scrolling list of documents).

 

Key Findings

1. It is a pure miracle in India that such a data source is available that throws light on the actual utilization of the various categories.
2. The Central Govt using the cover of RTI go to great extent to hide, that is correct, hide from the people, these key statistics. You have no idea how the vertical quota system is working in AIIMS, IIT, IIMs etc.
3. In Tamilnadu, the trends are remarkably stable since I started analyzing these statistics 5 years ago.
4. The OBC group in Tamilnadu are showing absolutely no evidence of disability. In fact the quota system leads to a loss of about 400 seats for them.
5. Of the top 20 Ranks : 16 are BC, 2 are BC-Muslim, and only 2 are from Unreserved.
6. The open category in Tamilnadu is only about 4.5%. It is a matter of amazement that such an over inclusion does not generate any comment from the $400M thinktanks in India.
7. Any analysis of the Jat, Kapu, Patidar protests from inclusion in the Central Govt OBC list must take into account these national imbalance in classification.
8. The reason for such poor performance of Open Category in Tamilnadu could be a combination of participation disincentives or just lack of competence.
9. Clearly the Vertical Quota system mechanics need a ground up debate. Do we have the intellectual ecosystem to enter into such a nuanced but ultimately decisive debate?